Short CHF positions are built further, following verbal intervention by the SNB
- The latest IMM data covers the week from 20 January to 27 January.
- Speculative investors remained net long USD, but the size of net long positions was unchanged in the week to 27 January.
- Net long JPY positions were built further and JPY remains the only currency in which speculative investors are net long against USD. USD/JPY tested the 0.87 low from December on 21 January, but the pair climbed higher in the following days to test 0.90 just prior to the FOMC meeting and the collection of IMM data.
- The largest change in speculative positions was seen for CHF, where net shorts were added to. This is likely to reflect the persistent verbal intervention from the Swiss National Bank, which has led several in the market, including ourselves, to argue that the risk of intervention could easily be successful in capping any potential CHF strength.
- While net short AUD positions were trimmed, net short NZD positions were built marginally, potentially reflecting positioning ahead of the 28 January RBNZ meeting (where the cash rate was cut by 150bp). AUD/NZD has also risen strongly in past weeks, testing 1.28 on 29 January, before correcting lower in recent days.
