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IMM positioning

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Short USD positions extended further against the EUR

Tue, Sep 22 2009, 06:54 GMT
by Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S


  • The latest IMM data cover the week from 8 to 15 September.
  • During the week the dollar came under further pressure, and the DXY dollar index continued to post new lows for the year. Mirroring the broad-based dollar weakness, speculative investors continued to add to USD shorts. This caused short USD positions to reach levels not seen since March last year.
  • Short USD positions were mainly built by positioning for a stronger EUR, as speculative investors added to their long positioning in the single currency while EUR/USD rose well above 1.46. Long EUR positions have thus risen to March-2008 levels, and have reached 24 percent of open interest.
  • Short GBP positions were extended further during the week covered by the data. The divergence in EUR and GBP positioning against the USD is thus consistent with the move higher in EUR/GBP, although the spike above the .90 level came after the collection of the data.
  • Long positioning in the currencies of the dollar-bloc (AUD, NZD and CAD) has increased slightly, although especially long NZD looks like a crowded trade when considering the magnitude of the positions relative to open interest. This does signal a risk that the kiwi will be exposed in case we see a setback in market sentiment.

Published on  Tue, Sep 22 2009, 06:57 GMT


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