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IMM positioning

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Speculative short dollar positions extended

Mon, Jun 15 2009, 14:59 GMT
by Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S


  • The latest IMM data covers the week from 2 to 9 June.
  • The week covered by the report was characterised by broad-based dollar-weakness, as the effective USD exchange rate fell to its lowest level since December and EUR/USD spiked above 1.43. The USD-bearish sentiment is reflected in the report, which shows that speculative investors increased their short USD positions, primarily against EUR. The fact that significant speculative short dollar positions were in place could potentially explain the vulnerability since then of EUR/USD to setbacks in risk appetite.
  • Speculative investors reversed their long position in JPY and are now marginally short yen against the USD for the first time in five weeks. During the week covered by the report, USD/JPY cleared 98 for the first time since early May, as US jobs data came out surprisingly strong.
  • Long positions in CAD were increased, and are now at the highest levels since July last year. The pick-up in risk sentiment at the beginning of this month generally favoured the pro-cyclical commodity currencies, causing the Canadian dollar to reach its strongest level since March 2008.
  • Overall, the latest IMM position indicates that speculative investors continue to be dollar bearish, and that they prefer to play this bet against the AUD and the EUR.

Published on  Mon, Jun 15 2009, 15:01 GMT


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