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IMM positioning

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Speculative investors scale back long USD positions

Mon, Apr 20 2009, 08:39 GMT
by Kasper Kirkegaard

Danske Bank A/S


      • The latest IMM data shows that net long USD positions were scaled back significantly in the week from 7 to 14 April.
      • Speculative investors have reduced their bets that GBP will depreciate. Net short GBP positions were trimmed by USD0.7bn following strong GBP performance in recent weeks. During April, GBP has gained close to 5% against EUR and close to 3% against USD. While reduced, net short GBP positions remain significant and there is thus still the potential for a move higher in GBP/USD to be catalysed by position unwinding.
      • Long positions in AUD and NZD were built further, while net short CAD positions were reduced. Both AUD and CAD continued their recent strong performance during the week to 14 April, while NZD underperformed against the other dollar-block currencies.
      • Net long EUR positions were also extended, though positions are still modest by historical measures. The euro has seen broad-based pressure since the IMM data was collected on 14 April.
      • Speculative investors are net long in AUD, EUR and NZD against USD, while net short in GBP, CAD, JPY and CHF against USD.

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