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FX Thoughts for the Day

Wed, Jul 1 2009, 12:14 GMT
by Kshitij Consultancy Service Team

Kshitij Consultancy Service

USD-CHF @ 1.0800/04...Mixed/ Ranged
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.0875 / 1.0956 / 1.1000
S: 1.0801 / 1.0744 / 1.0700
Overall trend is mixed/ ranged between 1.1025-0630 for the last 3 weeks and more. The current week is also totally indecisive within this range. While the Support at 1.06 continues to hold, there could be chances of a rise towards 1.1270 in the medium-long term.

In the nearer term, Dollar-Swiss is trading in very narrow range of 1.0817-1.0888 and currently, it is testing support level at 1.0834 (200-DMA 4-Hour Chart) and if this holds it may rise up to 1.0888 price level and further rise in upward direction may lead this pair to 1.0932 price level. And, if this support level breaks, Dollar –Swiss may test previous low at 1.0778 price level and further downside move may lead to 1.0740 price level.

You may also refer to our Morning Comment on the following page:
http://kshitij.com/fx/fxthotsreg.shtml

 
GBP-USD @ 1.6480/84...Ranged, buy dip/ sell rally
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R: 1.6500-20 / 1.6600-34
S: 1.6407 / 1.6383-65 / 1.6303 / 1.6256-35
The rise to 1.6740 yesterday seems have been a disappointing "false break" out of the 1.62-66 range that the Cable has been trading in since the middle of June. It has tested the 21-day MA Support at 1.6370 today and there are chances of an eventual break below 1.6370,

leading to a test of the bottom of the 1.62-66 range. This could happen over 1-3 day time frame.

The bigger question is, given the "false break/ false rise" to 1.6740 yesterday, could there be chances of an eventual break below 1.62 as well? Or could there be a spike down to 1.6150-6000, without any follow-through on the downside? Currently the odds are even/ the outlook is mixed. For the while, we shall assume that the Range will hold while it holds.

Limit Buy Order:
Buy GBP 10K at 1.6250, SL 1.6140, TP 1.6500

Limit Sell Order:
Sell GBP 10K at 1.6600, SL 1.6690, TP 1.6400

 
AUD-USD @ 0.8087/91...Resistance at 0.8160
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R: 0.8120 / 0.8160 / 0.8184
S: 0.8022 / 0.8000 / 0.7947
The Aussie, alongwith the Euro and the Pound, rose to 0.8158 yesterday, but could not sustain the rise and has fallen back. In the overall picture, it faces an important Resistance at 0.8160 on a trendline joining the Highs at 0.8266 (03-Jun), 0.8240 (11-Jun) and 0.8160 (30-Jun) on the Daily Candles. While this Resistance holds (it may) there are increasing chances of an eventual fall towards 0.7885, if not lower, PROVIDED the immediate Support at 0.8000 breaks.

Happy Trading!

Published on  Wed, Jul 1 2009, 13:03 GMT