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FX Thoughts for the Day

Tue, May 5 2009, 08:55 GMT
by Kshitij Consultancy Service Team

Kshitij Consultancy Services  |  View company's profile

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USD-CHF @ 1.1283/85...Ranged
---------------------------
R: 1.1331 / 1.1350 / 1.1403
S: 1.1225-01 / 1.1165 / 1.1064
Dollar-Swiss rose during the day towards 1.1358 and has fallen since then as the pair finds it difficult to rise beyond the 200-DMA (1.1379). The likely range that we would prefer is 1.1165-1.1358. We would like to bet strongly on the Support at 1.1165 which gains strength from 13-month MA, lowest point since 19-Mar-09 and it is also the 50% retracement of the rise from 1.0371 (29-Dec-08) to 1.1968 (12-Mar-09). And we also believe that this level might be tested sooner rather than later possibly over the course of present week itself. Hence we continue to mnaintain the Limit Buy Order which is framed around a belief that this Support might hold. To see the chart of Dollar-Swiss, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/chfcandle.shtml#candle

Limit Buy Order:
Buy USD 10K at 1.1170, SL 1.1130, TP Open
 

GBP-USD @ 1.5115/18...May rise towards 1.53
------------------------------------------
R: 1.5171 / 1.5632 / 1.5725
S: 1.4967 / 1.4919 / 1.4833
Cable has risen above the Resistance at 1.51 and is next likely to target 1.53 before it moves towards the lower end of the channel. To see the chart of Cable and the channel therein, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpcandle.shtml#candle

We would prefer Cable to come down after facing the trendline Resistance of the channel which is at 1.53 today. Does the flattening 21-week MA after being breached earlier signal a trend reversal or the ranged view is to be seen. Whatever, till the channel holds, it would be safe to "buy low, sell high" over the next several days.

 
 AUD-USD @ 0.7442/47...Resistance for today at 0.75
------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7498-0.7500 / 0.7746 / 0.7837
S: 0.7363 / 0.7342 / 0.7254
Aussie has Resistance at 0.7500 for the day both on the 4-hour chart and is also the Projected Max Low for the day based on the models used in "FX Thoughts - At a Glance" which can be viewed at: http://www.kshitij.com/fx/aag.shtml

However the view of a rise towards 0.77-0.78 over the medium term is still intact. But if the Resistance in Gold at 910 holds, we might have to have a fresh look. However, for now, the pair might be ranged near the 0.75 region before it breaks loose as it awaits some event which intuition suggests at the moment. Let's see.

During the day, however, we profited out of the Long we entered at 0.7403 as there are chances that the pair might find Resistance from the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the fall from 0.9851 to 0.6007 at 0.7475

Happy Trading!
 

Published on  Tue, May 5 2009, 12:03 GMT

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