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FX Thoughts for the Day

Thu, Oct 16 2008, 12:21 GMT
by Kshitij Consultancy Service Team

Kshitij Consultancy Service

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
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USD-CHF @ 1.1315/19... Nearing important Support
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R: 1.1400 / 1.1440-60 / 1.1500 / 1.1550
S: 1.1325-00 / 1.1270-50 / 1.1200 / 1.1150
A rise in the pair towards 1.15 has been restricted 1.15 during the day. The pair could now find Support near 1.1325-00 over the US session today, as the Projected Max Low for the day is at 1.1308. Also there is a trendline Support seen on the 4-hourly chart. A break below would hurt the sentiment in the market despite Support near 1.1250.

As long as the Support at 1.1300 holds the near term momentum remains bullish and a fresh rise towards 1.14 cannot be ruled out. The break below it, on the other hand could lead to a further slip towards 1.10 over the next week.

 
 GBP-USD @ 1.7248/53... Could slip towards 1.72 and below
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R: 1.7300 / 1.7350 / 1.7420 / 1.7500
S: 1.7200 / 1.7150-35 / 1.7100 / 1.7000
The resistance at 1.7350 has resulted in a dip during the day and provided the pair continues to trade below 1.7275-7300 a further slip towards 1.7150 cannot be ruled out.

Overall there is uncertainty in the market and despite Ben Bernanke hinting at a rate cut yesterday, the US 3-month Libor continues to trade near 4.50%, while the Fed Funds rate of 1.50%. This suggests that the clog in the credit market is a strong one and banks are still not willing to depart from the cash they have within their system. The lower US Retail Sales released yesterday doesnot help in such times either. To see the chart of US Retail Sales click on: http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usretail.shtml

 
 AUD-USD @ 0.6742/45... Could slip lower.
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R: 0.6740-50 / 0.6775 / 0.6800 / 0.6850
S: 0.6660 / 0.6600 / 0.6550 / 0.6500
The pair has seen a strong Resistance near 0.6810 early in the day. Since then attempts to rally have been curbed by resistance at 0.6750 during the day.

Overall the pair could now be pressured further to test the recent lows of 0.6330 if the investors continue to remain risk averse over the course of the next week as well. We are staying out of the market for sometime.

Happy Trading!

Published on  Thu, Oct 16 2008, 12:22 GMT