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FX Thoughts for the Day

Mon, Oct 6 2008, 12:16 GMT
by Kshitij Consultancy Service Team

Kshitij Consultancy Service

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
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USD-CHF @ 1.1394/98... Could dip from here
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R: 1.1375 / 1.1400 / 1.1420-38 / 1.1475
S: 1.1330 / 1.1300 / 1.1250-35 / 1.1200
The pair has risen to the high of 1.1449 during the day, as expected in the report earlier in the day. The market now has some Support at 1.1400 above the stronger Support at 1.1350 and at 1.1330-00. The pair has a fair chance of witnessing a dip in the day from here towards 1.1350 breaking below the immediate Support at 1.1400 as well.

Overall the pair could be bullish as it continues to trade above the 21-month SMA at 1.1317. However, currently one cannot conclude that the SMA has been broken past, as the rise could be just a small spike in the bigger picture.
To see the monthly chart click on:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/chfmth.shtml


Cable    GBP-USD @ 1.7608/613... Could bounce from here
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R: 1.7600-20 / 1.7680 / 1.7700 / 1.7750
S: 1.7550 / 1.7500 / 1.7450 / 1.7420 / 1.7360 / 1.7310
Cable had dipped to a low of 1.7515 during the day and has since then risen to the current levels. The day ahead is expected to see the pair rise further towards 1.76 and higher.

With the 21-day SMA flattening, a sharp rise over the week cannot be ruled out completely. The rise is also likely owing to the fact that the Support at 1.7440 region is the 50% retracement of the rise since 2000 (1.3682) to 2008 (2.1163).


Aussie    AUD-USD @ 0.7480/84... Bigger picture important
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R: 0.7500 / 0.7535 / 0.7550-75 / 0.7620
S: 0.7435 / 0.7400 / 0.7350 / 0.7314
Aussie has dipped below the immediate Support at 0.75 and could now recede lower towards the 50% retracement of the rise from 0.4775 (2001) to 0.9851 (2008) at 0.7315.

Overall the market remains uncertain and is difficult to anticipate the speed of the fall from here towards 0.7314. However, the pair is currently trading well below the Max Low for the day at 0.7525, as the market once again trending. Whether the Support at 0.7314 will hold or not remains to be seen.

We would like to caution our readers to avoid too many short-term trades and keep an eye on the bigger picture instead.



Happy Trading!

Published on  Mon, Oct 6 2008, 12:17 GMT