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FX Thoughts for the Day

Mon, Aug 18 2008, 12:42 GMT
by Kshitij Consultancy Service Team

Kshitij Consultancy Service

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
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USD-CHF @ 1.0978/84.... Possibility of further upside
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R: 1.1000-25 / 1.1040-50 / 1.1150-75
S: 1.0950 / 1.0900 / 1.0850-40 / 1.0800
As expected, the Support in the day at 1.09 has held and produced a bounce towards 1.0980 so far in the day.

Going ahead this week could see further rise, provided the US Housing Starts does not disappoint tomorrow. Overall the market momentum is positive and could target 1.1150 over the week, provided the Resistance at 1.1040-50 breaks. On the bigger picture there remains a possibility of a rise towards 1.14-1.15 in the medium term if the dollar continues its recovery over the coming few weeks/months.

Market Trade(at the time of writing):
Buy 10K USD at Current Level, SL open, TP 1.1020
 

GBP-USD @ 1.8675/79... Could rise this week.
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R: 1.8700-15 / 1.8760-80 / 1.8820
S: 1.8650-30 / 1.8610-00 / 1.8560-50
Finding Support at 1.85, a small bounce has materialized since then. However, this week expect a rise towards the 200-SMA on the weekly, which is now seen at 1.8860. For the day, look for a rise above 1.87 later in the day, which could trigger a rise towards 1.8780 over the US session.

Overall the pair is expected to weaken further with an eventual target of 1.80-1.75 due to the impending recession.

 
AUD-USD @ 0.8731/35... Support of 100-week SMA held
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R: 0.8750-60 / 0.8800-20 / 0.8860
S: 0.8730-00 / 0.8660 / 0.8632-20
Aussie is within the overall downtrend and could continue to slip further over the month. However, this week in particular is expected to see a rise in the pair technically. A rise towards 0.89-0.90 seems possible early this week. However, it is not advisable to enter long in a downtrend. The idea should remain to sell rallies.

With a strong Resistance at 0.90 region, a rise beyond is not expected in the pair for now. However, with the possibility of further rate cuts over the year, further dips in prices are not ruled out completely. A break below the immediate Support at 0.86-0.85, could lead to a slip towards 0.82-0.80 over the month.

Happy Trading!
 

Published on  Mon, Aug 18 2008, 12:47 GMT