FX Thoughts for the Day

FX Thoughts for the Day

Wed, Jul 16 2008, 11:19 GMT
by Kshitij Consultancy Service Team

Kshitij Consultancy Service


EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
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USD-CHF @ 1.0073/7.... Could test 1.00 before a sharp bounce is seen
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R: 1.0100 / 1.0130 / 1.0150-60 / 1.0200-20
S: 1.0025-00 / 0.9960 / 0.9900
The Pair is trading in tight range since morning and the small rise that was seen earlier in the day was in line with our expectation but not of a similar quantum. The pair started to decline after facing Resistance at 1.0120.

For the day now, expect a deeper fall to re-test 1.0020-00. However, a bounce from there could be seen targeting 1.0150 over a couple of days. A fall towards 1.00 could be triggered once the US Tics and CPI data releases. To follow the data series click on:
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/uscpi.shtml
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ustics.shtml
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/calendar/calendar.shtml

The view remains bearish, however, we would rather take a position at better level (on a bounce) than now.
 
 
GBP-USD @ 2.0020/25....Whipsaw between 2.01-2.00
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R: 2.0050 / 2.0149-60 / 2.0200 / 2.0325
S: 2.0000 / 1.9950 / 1.9850
Cable has whipsawing endliessly since morning between 2.01-2.00; however, it is finding decent Support at 2.00. As long as it holds a rise in the day is possible. For now, a break beyond either is necessary to give a direction to the market.

The hourly seems a little bearish and could lead to a test of stronger Support at 1.9950. However, this should not impact the overall bullish sentiment provided 1.9950 holds.

A rise from, if seen, could face Resistance in the region of 2.01, and 2.0150 once again. For now a dip to 1.9950 could be bought with a tight stop.

 
 AUD-USD @ 0.9773/77.... Continues to be bullish.
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R: 0.9800 / 0.9825 / 0.9868
S: 0.9765-70 / 0.9745 / 0.9700
The pair has tested Support at 0.9750-45 over the earlier part of the day and now seems to be poised to inch higher towards the Resistance at 0.9867. The overall picture has not changed and continues to remain bullish above 0.9720. Minor Resistance could be expected at 0.9825, before an eventual rise towards 0.9860 region.

Holding:
Long 10K AUD at 0.9770, SL 0.9700, TP Open
Long 10K AUD at 0.9774, SL 0.9700, TP Open


Happy Trading!

Published on  Wed, Jul 16 2008, 11:41 GMT

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These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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