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Forex Economic Analysis

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Forex Technical Analysis on Majors

Fri, Jul 4 2008, 07:44 GMT
by Stoyan Mihaylov

www.deltastock.com

• EUR/USD

Current level-1.5715

The currency pair has set a local bottom at 1.5301 completing the slide from 1.5844. Technical indicators are neutral. Trading takes place above 50- day SMA, currently projected at 1.5609.
   
A weak intraday high was reached at 1.5909 after ECB's interest rate announcement, as the 0.25% hike was already priced in. The sharp sell-off that followed was fueled by Trichet's statement, that current hike will probably be enough to "anchor inflation expectations", that resulted in closing long positions built during last week. The effect was doubled by the fact, that due to today's national holiday in USA, all the US markets will remain closed, which practically made yesterday's trading session week's closing one. Expect calm, range trading below 1.5775 and above 1.5651 support zone.

Today's strategy: Stand aside.

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• USD/JPY

Current level - 106.84

The pair is in a corrective uptrend from the 95.75 short-term bottom. Technical indicators are flat and the upmove is dynamically supported at 104.74. The inner structure of the rise is by all means a corrective one, so from a larger point of view the overall downtrend from 124.14 is not over yet.  

The acceleration of the downtrend has denied the possibility, that a final spike high around 109.30 is still possible and it is clear, that a mid-term top is set at 108.59 and current slide is aiming at 102.63 and 100.06 later on.

Allow one more upswing to 107.12 resistance before exhaustion of the current corrective upmove and renewing the downtrend. If correct, next short-term target is projected at 103.83 and 102.63 later on.

Today's strategy: Sell on a break below 105.79, stop above intraday high, target above 103.83.

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• GBP/USD

Current level- 1.9842

The pair is in a broad consolidation above 1.9338 and below 2.0397. Technical indicators are flat on the higher time-frames and trading is situated between the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.9685 and 1.9982.
 

The expected consolidation phase since 2.0007 has reached the minimum target at 1.9801, but there are no signs for its completion, so allow one more spike low to 1.9767 before change of the direction. We hold on to our short-term view, that the uptrend from 1.9474 is still intact and it will target 2.0274 and 2.0397 later on. Keep an eye on the 1.9912 resistance, as a break beyond that level will directly aim at 2.0274.

Today's strategy : Buy on a break above 1.9912, stop below intraday low, target at 2.0274. Intraday sell current levels for 1.9783.

Published on  Fri, Jul 4 2008, 07:51 GMT