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Forex Economic Analysis

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Forex Technical Analysis on Majors

Thu, Jul 3 2008, 08:01 GMT
by Stoyan Mihaylov

www.deltastock.com

• EUR/USD

Current level-1.5872

The currency pair has set a local bottom at 1.5301 completing the slide from 1.5844. Technical indicators are neutral. Trading takes place above 50- day SMA, currently projected at 1.5609.
  
 
Yesterday's climb above the 1.5844 resistance showed, that the corrective phase since Friday's 1.5838 has ended at intraday's low at 1.5775 and the uptrend towards 1.6135 has been renewed. This early break beyond the mentioned resistance is a solid proof of the bullish sentiment out there in the market, based on the overall consensus for a 0.25%  interest rate hike from the European Central Bank. We hold on to our mid-term target at 1.6135.

Today's strategy:Buy on dips to 1.5854, stop below 1.5831, intraday target above 1.5943.

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• USD/JPY

Current level - 106.12

The pair is in a corrective uptrend from the 95.75 short-term bottom. Technical indicators are flat and the upmove is dynamically supported at 104.74. The inner structure of the rise is by all means a corrective one, so from a larger point of view the overall downtrend from 124.14 is not over yet.  

The acceleration of the downtrend has denied the possibility, that a final spike high around 109.30 is still possible and it is clear, that a mid-term top is set at 108.59 and current slide is aiming at 102.63 and 100.06 later on. As expected the pair has reached 106.74 and it seems, that consolidation since 104.98 is already over, but still a break below 105.19 is needed to confirm. If correct, next short-term target is projected at 103.83 and 102.63 later on.

Today's strategy: Sell on a break below 115.19, stop above intraday high, target above 103.83.

__________

• GBP/USD

Current level- 1.9911

The pair is in a broad consolidation above 1.9338 and below 2.0397. Technical indicators are flat on the higher time-frames and trading is situated between the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.9685 and 1.9982.
 

As expected a local top was set at 2.0007 and a corrective phase is unfolding since, that should challenge 1.9801 before completion. The general uptrend from 1.9474 is intact, well supported at 1.9767, aiming at 2.0274 and 2.0397 later on.

Today's strategy : Sell at 1.9973, stop above 2.0007, target at 1.9843.

Published on  Thu, Jul 3 2008, 08:22 GMT