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Cable: Remains weak below the interim falling resistance coming in at 1.4359 today

Tue, Mar 10 2009, 08:02 GMT
by Per-Erik Karlsson

Avantage Financial GMBH

Euro

The theme from last week will most likely continue with correlation between the Euro and stock prices to remain dominant, which suggest stronger Euro when stocks rally and stronger USD when stocks fall. Friday’s US Non Farm payrolls data was not as weak as the rumor suggested, so stocks bounced on the release taking the Euro higher, but it was fairly short lived and the sellers stepped later in the session. The interim falling resistance was taken out Thursday, which relieves the downside pressure a bit and opens for more sideways pattern 1.2450 to 1.2752 and only a break out of this range would extend in either direction.

Support: 1.2459 (Thursday’s low), 1.2328 (2008 low)

Resistance: 1.2752 (Friday’s high), 1.2728 (21 day EMA), 1.2898 (last Wednesday’s high), 1.3000 (psychological resistance), 1.3090 (February high)

240 min – Have falling resistance coming in at 1.2795 today with key support down at 1.2450.

Cable

Remains weak below the interim falling resistance coming in at 1.4359 today. The break below 1.40 this morning now opens for a possible test of that yearly low at 1.3501. Key levels for today are, falling resistance at 1.4359 and support at the yearly low at 1.3501.

Support: 1.3501 (2008 low)

Resistance: 1.4359 (interim falling res), 1.4619 (falling resistance), 1.4985 (Feb. 2009 high) 1.5372 (2009 high)

120 min – Key support at 1.40 broke this morning, opens for a test of 1.3501.

USDCHF

Trading inside the rising trend channel with 1.1967 overhead resistance and 1.1537 underlying support. Need to close outside of this range to trigger and bigger directional move. Friday’s price action was bearish and suggest a possible break to the down side that is what I favor for the moment as long as falling resistance from the October 08 high is not broken, coming in at 1.1953 today.

Support: 1.1537 (triangle support), 1.1313 (27th of January low)

Resistance: 1.1884 (20 Feb high), 1.1963 (triangle resistance), 1.1953 (falling res. from Oct. 08 high)

USDJPY

Bullish momentum intact above the interim risings support at 96.57 today. Have minor support at that former overhead resistance coming in at 97.34 today. Next target is now 100.54 level. The correlation between stock prices and JPY is totally gone and seems to be more focus on the struggling Japanese economy over the last few weeks, but for how long will this correlation be absent?

Support: 97.34 (former overhead resistance), 96.57 (interim rising support), 94.62 (break out level), 92.14 (rising support from 09 low), 87.09 (Dec. 08 low)

Resistance: 100.54 (November 2008 high)

EURJPY

Upside potential above the risings support coming in at 123.53 today. Need to break above the 126 level in the next few sessions to open for a rally towards 130. If it this doesn’t happen it should correct lower towards the 120 level. Not been able to make any substantial move above the 125.74 that is the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement of the 169.96 to 112.07 move. A daily close above 126.00 would target 130 level next.

Support: 123.53 (interim rising support), 120.48 (former overhead resistance), 117.88 (Friday low), 115.61 (rising support)

Resistance: 125.74 (23.60% Fibonacci of the 169.96 to 112.07 move) 131.09 (December 08 high)

USDCAD

Broke above the 1.30 level this morning, but not able to sustain it above that 1.3050-60 level to rule out a false break. Now almost 100 pips lower, so looks like a potential false break. However the close today will be important to judge if the break was true or false.

Support: 1.2440 (rising support), 1.1759 (last reaction low), 1.1685 (rising support), 1.1460 (break out level)

Resistance: 1.3063 (this morning’s high)

EURGBP

The break above 0.9079 (Feb high) this morning, now targets the gap at 0.9206 from 29 of January. Key support remains the 0.8630 level.

Support: 0.8798 (rising support), 0.8630 (2009 low)

Resistance: 0.9206 (gap from 29 Jan09)

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Published on  Tue, Mar 10 2009, 08:14 GMT