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Cable: Remains weak below the falling resistance coming in at 1.4619 today

Fri, Mar 6 2009, 06:00 GMT
by Per-Erik Karlsson

Avantage Financial GMBH

Euro

Expect the correlation between the Euro and stock prices to remain a major theme for the rest of the week, which suggest stronger Euro when stocks rally and stronger USD when stocks fall. Yesterday’s rally came up to test the falling resistance this morning, but sellers took control towards the ECB decision and drove it lower. Yesterday’s low has remained intact, which still opens for a spike higher tomorrow on the US Payrolls release. Have resistance today at falling resistance from Dec 08 high coming in at 1.2673, with minor resistance at the 21 day EMA of 1.2754. Expect stops to be triggered if 1.2670 resistance is broken.

Support: 1.2459 (yesterday low), 1.2328 (2008 low)

Resistance: 1.27673 (falling resistance from Dec 08 high), 1.2754 (21 day EMA), 1.2898 (last Wednesday’s high), 1.3000 (psychological resistance), 1.3090 (February high)

240 min – Downtrend intact below the falling resistance at 1.2673 while it broke below the underlying support looks like a false break for the time being, a move above 1.2670 would confirm false break.

Cable

Remains weak below the falling resistance coming in at 1.4619 today. The 1.50 level is also key resistance level. Not been able to sustain the break below 1.40 yet and seems to be well supported towards 1.40 level. Key levels for today are, falling resistance at 1.4619 and support at Monday’s low at 1.3956.

Support: 1.3956 (Monday’s low), 1.3501 (2008 low)

Resistance: 1.4619 (falling resistance), 1.4985 (Feb. 2009 high) 1.5372 (2009 high)

120 min – Falling resistance at 1.4619 is key level to break to rally.

USDCHF

Trading inside the rising trend channel with 1.1963 overhead resistance and 1.1529 underlying support. Need to close outside of this range to trigger and bigger directional move. Last Friday’s price action was bearish and suggest a possible break to the down side that is what I favor for the moment as long as falling resistance from the October 08 high is not broken , coming in at 1.1958 today.

Support: 1.1529 (triangle support), 1.1313 (27th of January low)

Resistance: 1.1884 (20 Feb high), 1.1963 (triangle resistance), 1.1958 (falling res. from Oct. 08 high)

USDJPY

Bullish momentum intact above the interim risings support at 96.15 today. Have minor support at that former overhead resistance coming in at 97.00 today. Next target is now 100.54 level. The correlation between stock prices and JPY is totally gone and seems to be more focus on the struggling Japanese economy over the last few weeks, but for how long will this correlation be absent?

Support: 97.00 (former overhead resistance), 96.15 (interim rising support), 94.62 (break out level), 92.14 (rising support from 09 low), 87.09 (Dec. 08 low)

Resistance: 100.54 (November 2008 high)

EURJPY

The bullish momentum was a bit weakened over the last few sessions, however the higher close Tuesday could indicate that Monday’s down move was just a test of supply, which indicated a possible successful test. To confirm this it has to break above the 126 level in the next few sessions to open for a rally towards 130. If it this doesn’t happen it should correct lower towards the 120 level. Not been able to make any substantial move above the 125.74 that is the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement of the 169.96 to 112.07 move. A daily close above 126.00 would target 130 level next.

Support: 122.92 (interim rising support), 120.48 (former overhead resistance), 117.88 (Friday low), 115.61 (rising support)

Resistance: 125.74 (23.60% Fibonacci of the 169.96 to 112.07 move) 131.09 (December 08 high)

USDCAD

Closing in on that 1.30 level, which remains the key resistance level to break to get another rally higher. Probably need to break above 1.3050 or so to make sure the break is real and not just a stop hunting move. Expect a fair amount of sellers stepping in ahead of that 1.30 level. Rising support coming in at 1.2408 today, which need to hold to keep the recent bullish momentum intact. The first attack on 1.30 Tuesday failed, maybe a weak US payrolls figure could spark a move above 1.30?

Support: 1.2408 (rising support), 1.1759 (last reaction low), 1.1685 (rising support), 1.1460 (break out level)

Resistance: 1.3007 (March 2006 low)

EURGBP

The interim falling resistance (0.8845) was broken Wednesday last week and this opens for a test of the 0.9079, which is the key resistance level and gateway to higher levels. Key support remains the 0.8630 level.

Support: 0.8789 (rising support), 0.8630 (2009 low)

Resistance: 0.9010 (yesterday‘s high), 0.9079 (February high)

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Published on  Fri, Mar 6 2009, 06:12 GMT