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Euro: Still trading in the defined down trend channel that it has been in for more than a month

Thu, Nov 20 2008, 12:03 GMT
by Per-Erik Karlsson

Avantage Financial GMBH

Euro

Still trading in the defined down trend channel that it has been in for more than a month. Tried to break above that falling resistance line yesterday, but failed and closed at the lows for the day, which is a bearish price action. Key overhead resistance is coming in at 1.2734 today, so bearish momentum intact below this level. The support points to watch for today are yesterday’s low of 1.2566 and last week’s low of 1.2379. Also have a rising support from the October low coming in at 1.2408 today.

Support: 1.2415 (rising sup), 1.2379 (last week’s low), 1.2323 (January 2006 high)

Resistance: 1.2694 (falling resistance), 1.2789 (21 day EMA), 1.3295 (30 Oct high)

240 min – Rising support at 1.2415 and falling resistance at 1.2694 that are the key levels for now.

Cable

The break out above 1.5100 resistance did test the falling resistance at 1.5214 as outlined in yesterday’s report. Heavy selling came in just above that falling resistance line to make it close sharply lower, bearish price action. So remains bearish below that falling resistance line coming in at 1.5075 today. Key support remains the 1.4550 level, last week’s low.

Support: 1.4550 (last week’s low)

Resistance: 1.5075 (falling resistance)

120 min – Weak below the falling resistance at 1.5075 today.

USDCHF

Broke to the upside of the apex that is has been trading in since start of November. Short term bullish momentum intact above 1.2060 today (rising interim support). Key resistance is the 1.2150 level today.

Support: 1.2060 (interim rising support)

Resistance: 1.2151 (Sep. 2007 high)

USDJPY

The rising support line at 95.53 was broken overnight and 94.50 must hold to avoid another down leg. Weak outlook below the falling resistance at 98.53 today.

Support: 94.50 (last week’s low), 90.88 (Friday low)

Resistance: 98.53 (falling res)

EURJPY

It is weak below the falling resistance, coming in at 122.98 today. Have support down at the rising support at 119.30 (traded below this line overnight, but back above it now). Need to see a break out above or below (daily close) these levels to see more directional moves.

Support: 119.30 (rising support)

Resistance: 122.98 (falling resistance)

USDCAD

The key resistance level remains 1.3007 (March 2006 low). Bullish momentum intact above the rising support line coming in at 1.2185 today. Closed above last week’s high yesterday, which is a signal of strength.

Support: 1.2185 (rising support), 1.2178 (yesterday’s low), 1.2083(14/11 low), 1.1304 (former overhead res)

Resistance: 1.3007 (March 2006 low)

EURGBP

From yesterday “The breakout above the overhead resistance at 0.8230 last week was for real and the pair shoot higher towards the 0.87 level. Expect support today towards the rising coming in at 0.8338.” Tested that exact 0.8338 level yesterday and bounced higher as expected.

Support: 0.82338 (rising support)

Resistance: 0.8463 (yesterday’s high), 0.8661 (all time high)

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Published on  Thu, Nov 20 2008, 12:22 GMT