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Euro: The downtrend is intact below falling trend line on coming in at 1.4811 today

Fri, Sep 5 2008, 05:58 GMT
by Per-Erik Karlsson

Avantage Financial GMBH

Euro

The downtrend is intact below falling trend line on coming in at 1.4811 today. Next key level is December 2007 low of 1.4309. Also have a rising trend line from January 2007 lows coming in at 1.4279 as support. Also have 38,20% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1638 to 1.6038 move, coming in at 1.4345. In about the same area, the 61,80% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.3359 to 1.6038 is coming in at 1.4383.

Support: 1.483 (61, 80% Fibo of 1.3359 to 1.6038), 1.4345 (38,20% Fibo of the 1.1638 – 1.6038 move), 1.4309 (Dec 07 low), 1.4279 (rising support from Jan 07)

Resistance: 1.4568 (August low), 1.4659 (upper channel res), 1.4811 (falling resistance)

240 min – Overhead resistance at 1.4713 today, bounced off the underlying support yesterday.

Cable

Approaching some major support points in the 1.77-1.7230 region. Could see some support towards the 1.7700 level that was the low back in July 2004. With several support levels all the way down to 1.7230. Closed quite some way off the lows yesterday after making a new yearly low. This signals that it had to be some buying involved making it close off the lows. The price action over the next few days is important to see whether it is a bottom in place for the latest move. However as long as the falling trend line at 1.8156 holds the trend remains down.

Support: 1.7700 (Jul 04 low), 1.7620(Mar 06 break out level), 1.7230 (March 06 low)

Resistance: 1.8156 (falling resistance), 1.8748 (unfilled gap on 120 min chart)

120 min –1.8225 falling resistance and also notice the unfilled gap up at 1.8748.

USDCHF

Was not able to sustain any momentum above that 1.1105 Feb reaction high and close in the lower end (down 111 pips from the high) of the range after making a new multi month high in the early trading. This is a sign of weakness and it reflects sellers stepping in overcoming the buyers. Stay tuned over the next days to see what happens. Uptrend intact above rising interim support at 1.0939. The next key resistance level is overhead resistance at 1.1338. Also keep an eye on the 1.1105 level that was the reaction high in Feb 08.

Support: 1.0939 (interim rising support), 1.0728 (Feb 08 break down level)

Resistance: 1.1170 (yesterdays’ high), 1.1338 (overhead resistance)

USDJPY

Basically trading between two key levels. The key falling resistance kicking in at 110.63 today and the rising support from the 2008 low is coming in at 107.11

Support: 107.60 (107.01 weekly low), 107.11 (rising sup from 08 low)

Resistance: 110.63 (Aug 08 high), 110.67 (Falling res)

EURJPY

Steep downtrend intact below 159.55 falling resistance. The range this year has been 170-152 and it is still some way to go to the lower end of this range. Have 156 and 154.05 as support points prior to key 152. So expect to see some potential buying interest towards these levels.

Support: 156.03, 154.05, 152.00 (key yearly low)

Resistance: 155.55 (interim falling resistance), 170.00 (psychological resistance), 171.36 (overhead channel resistance)

USDCAD

From yesterday “The falling trend line from the May 2004 high held on the first test, but was taken out yesterday. However, the price action yesterday suggests to me that it was some selling towards the 1.0750 level as it closed significantly off the highs.” Indeed it looks like sellers stepped in with another weak close yesterday and looks vulnerable for a pullback. First target would be the interim risings support at 1.0510, followed by the 1.0410 reaction low for the latest up move.

Support: 1.0510 (interim rising support), 1.0410 (reaction low Aug 26), 1.0157 (rising support from Nov07 low), 1.0216 (100 day moving average)

Resistance: 1.0653 (overhead res), 1.0775 (yesterdays’ high)

EURGBP

Uptrend intact above 0.8038 risings support and have overhead resistance at 0.8212 today. Also keep in mind that it gapped up on the open Monday, so this opening level of 0.8090 is key support now, a break below this level would open for a possible correction lower towards the rising trend line. The close of the high’s Tuesday is a warning signal of weakness.

Support: 0.8090 (open Monday), 0.8038 (rising support)

Resistance: 0.8162 (yesterday’s high), 0.8212 (overhead resistance)0.8162 (yesterday’s high), 0.8212 (overhead resistance)

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Published on  Fri, Sep 5 2008, 07:05 GMT