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EUR/USD Briefing
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EUR/USD heading to crossroads
Tue, Feb 19 2008, 08:44 GMT
by Nexum Team
“EUR/USD heading to crossroads”
(A bearish Bernanke sends the Dollar to weak levels)
---Will we see the pair bounce back south once again?---
Last week we saw the end of the Dollar rally as Ben Bernanke gave one more statement about risk aversion and the negative outlook for the upcoming months. This was enough to reinsure the market that the Fed will continue to lower interest rate in the upcoming FOMC meetings. We expect a 50 Bps cut in the next one. These events led the way for the EUR/USD to head back to 1.4700, however we are now trying to figure out if the pair will do the same as the last several times we’ve seen these prices. Will it bounce right back and fall under 1.4500 in less than a week? If it does we sure will take advantage and some great profits along the way. To figure this out it will be important to keep an eye on a few things during the week, here are some of them. Tuesdays BoJ minutes could give us an outlook on how Central Banks are looking at the global tendency to lower rates, this could be important to pressure ECB to at least consider a rate cut during 2008. Wednesday will be pretty similar as we get BoE minutes and the FED’s minutes as well. Both of them will give us a clear view into the next meeting. CPI and Housing Starts for the US will also be important on Wednesday, however they are expected to do pretty normal so don’t expect strong market movements as they are released. Thursday will bring Euro Zone Current Account which is expected weak and EUR/USD could begin to look south, at least below 1.4600.
The Technical side is beginning to look like a cycle. EUR/USD has been going up and down within the same range for a while now. It will be crucial to anticipate weather it will repeat this or not. If you get the wrong impression you would get behind the trend and end up either not earning easy money or loosing some because you got trapped chasing the market. Keep an eye on fundamentals and use technical analysis to get in at the best price possible.
EUR/USD
This week you should focus your attention into trying to find out if EUR/USD will continue to oscillate between the well marked barriers. If it will, you will be left with the task of deciding where to place your short position and how low to wait until you take profits.
Daily Graph
EUR/USD seems to be trapped inside the green channel, we expect this to continue for the rest of February so take advantage and get some profits.
Our analysis indicates Short EUR/USD every time it reaches 1.4740
- Take Profit 1:1.4650
- Take Profit 2: 1.4550
Published on Tue, Feb 19 2008, 09:09 GMT
Archive
- Fundamentals continue to be the main determinant on trend setting
Published On Tue, Aug 26 2008, 07:36 GMT - Euro to Raise Interest Rates?
Published On Tue, Jul 1 2008, 08:57 GMT - Will USD rally come to an end?
Published On Tue, Jun 3 2008, 12:31 GMT - Euro climbs on dovish FED
Published On Wed, May 28 2008, 10:39 GMT - EUR/USD continues in range
Published On Tue, Apr 29 2008, 07:21 GMT
Nexum Capital Markets
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