- The dollar index experienced a major drop on Friday, after a week long consolidation phase; the sell-off was precipitated by events in Europe as the EU summit surpassed expectations and the market once again had an appetite for risk.
- Average USDX daily range over 60 days is 51 pips, Friday came in at an impressive 131 pips and 256% of the ADR.
- Friday’s NY session close had price heading towards the recent range lows around 81.20, this resides just above the 50% retrace of the least major push higher.
- A break below this area would signal a continuation of the bearish USD sentiment seen on Friday and print a lower high around 82.70 (last weeks high).
- Any move under this area, and further liquidation of perceived “safe haven” dollar positions, could see the 61.8% retrace and daily 100 SMA tested around 80.50; further to this is the ascending trend line shown on the D1 and W1 charts below with the 80.00 handle and 200 SMA just below.
- Potential resistance is seen at the previous support cluster of daily lows around 82.20; last weeks high could likewise see resistance on a break above 82.20.
Dollar Index Technical Update
Dollar Index Technical Update 30/6/2012
Sat, Jun 30 2012, 20:57 GMT