EUR
Comment: Breaking above the top of a neat little ‘channel’ and the 9-day moving average as the US dollar weakens against a raft of major currencies. Momentum is zero and the Euro is a long way from being overbought so will not hamper rallies. However, this does mean that it is trailing badly behind the leaders (NZD +3.0% in the last five days, then NOK followed by AUD and CAD).
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4740 but only if prepared to add to 1.4650; stop below 1.4480. Short term target 1.4765/1.4800, eventually 1.5000.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Hovering rather precariously above trendline support and Yen crosses are all looking slightly different. Note that the Euro is no longer oversold against the Yen and momentum is just bearish. Expect more of the sae today keeping a wary eye on the downside as the longer we hover here the deeper the subsequent slide.
Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 131.10; stop above 132.25. Short term target 130.00 then 129.00.
GBP
Comment: Consolidating in what looks like an inverted ‘pennant’ under the 9-day moving average and the sort of ‘neckline’ of a potential ‘head-and-shoulders’ top and above the first Fibonacci support at 1.5700. Note that the Lagging Span is still holding at the bottom of a good-sized Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and price action last week might be a small ‘double bottom’. Expect more very cautious hesitation today with momentum staying bearish while below 1.6200 but keep in mind that the Technicals are very mixed.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.5990; stop well below 1.5700. Short term target 1.6125.
JPY
Comment: ‘Triangle’ consolidation under trendline resistance and the 9-day moving average looking increasingly like an inverted ‘pennant’. Prices should eventually move lower. The US dollar is only very slightly oversold and bearish momentum has increased.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 88.95 but only if prepared to add to 89.95; stop above 90.65. Short term target 88.60/88.25, eventually 87.25.
