EUR
Comment: Pulling slowly back in a neat little ‘channel’, capped again by the 9-day moving average. Today allow for a basing attempt against the short term 50% Fibonacci retracement and 26-day moving average at 1.4500. Momentum is zero and the Euro is a long way from being overbought.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4545; stop well below 1.4500. Short term target 1.4675/1.4700.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Hovering on trendline support, nervously trying to decide if it will succumb to the inevitable. Note that the Euro is still oversold against the Yen and momentum is bearish. Other Yen crosses have ‘doji’ candles on the weekly charts suggesting they are looking for direction; Asian currencies are leading on the way down.
Strategy: Sell at 130.15/130.50; stop above 132.15. Short term target 129.84/129.65 then 128.00.
GBP
Comment: Under the 9-day moving average and the sort of ‘neckline’ of a potential ‘head-and-shoulders’ top (which may well never work out and turn into a very large rectangle); above the first Fibonacci support at 1.5700. Note that the Lagging Span is holding at the bottom of a good-sized Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Expect more very cautious hesitation today with momentum staying bearish while below 1.6200.
Strategy: Possibly attempt very small longs at 1.5930; stop well below 1.5700. Short term target 1.6125.
JPY
Comment: Struggling under the 9-day moving average with price action since the 21st September looking increasingly like ‘triangle’ consolidation or an inverted ‘pennant’. The US dollar is not oversold and momentum is just bearish and a weekly close below 88.75 would be the lowest weekly close since July 1995. This could trigger a gap lower over the weekend.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 89.50, adding to 90.00; stop above 90.65. Short term target 89.25/89.00 maybe 88.50.
