EUR
Comment: Consolidating neatly in a little ‘channel’, capped by the 9-day moving average. Today allow for a re-test of the short term 50% Fibonacci retracement and 26-day moving average at 1.4500. Momentum is zero and the Euro is a long way from being overbought.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4565; stop below 1.4500. Short term target 1.4700.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Hovering slightly uneasily above trendline support and below the Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Note that the Euro is still oversold against the Yen, and other Yen crosses are behaving differently. These must work in tandem to achieve the sudden drops we are predicting.
Strategy: Sell at 131.15, adding to 131.75; stop above 132.15. Short term target 130.00/129.84.
GBP
Comment: Capped by the 9-day moving average, ahead of the ‘neckline’ of a potential ‘head-and-shoulders’ top (which may well never work out and turn into a very large rectangle). Note that the Lagging Span is re-testing the bottom of a good-sized Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Expect more very cautious hesitation today.
Strategy: Possibly attempt very small longs at 1.5945; stop below 1.5700. Short term target 1.6125.
JPY
Comment: Little to add, other than perhaps we are getting used to these levels, as we remain trapped between a massive ‘hammer’ low and capped by the 9-day moving average. Rallies towards trendline resistance and the 26-day moving average at 91.17/91.27 are seen as medium term selling opportunities for an eventual test of January’s low at 87.10. The US dollar is no longer oversold and at-the-money implied volatility should eventually increase as prices thrash around between 87.00 and 92.00 this month.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 90.00; stop above 91.65. Short term target 89.35/89.15 maybe 88.50.
