EUR
Comment: Consolidating slightly unsteadily in thin conditions, bouncing from the 9-day moving average at 1.4611. Expect the Euro to hold above here again today, setting itself up for an upside test before the end of this week.
Strategy: Buy at 1.4710; stop below 1.4600. Add to longs on a break above 1.4775 for 1.5000 medium term and more long term.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Still very messy as we move broadly sideways in the same range for a sixth consecutive month. Hovering at the upper edge of the daily Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and moving averages are only just suggesting a short position. More of the same today.
Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 134.90; stop above 135.55. Add to shorts below 133.70 for 132.80 and then 131.00.
GBP
Comment: Very precariously posed as sterling loses ground against all major currencies and on the Bank of England’s Trade Weighted Index drops to 79.70. Cable has formed a potential ‘head-and-shoulders’ top since June but remains well above Fibonacci retracement support. Be very careful.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.6230; stop below 1.6100. First target 1.6400.
JPY
Comment: Thin markets because of a three-day public holiday in Japan, and Eid al-Fitr in many others, means chart levels are unlikely to hold neatly. The latest bounce looks to have stalled yesterday at a high of 92.55 with an odd-looking ‘spike high’. Downside pressure might increase if prices hold below 92.00 today so that we get set for a re-test of the downside before the end of the month.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 91.70/92.00; stop above 92.55. Short term target 91.50, then 90.35/90.00 and then slowly lower still.
