EUR
Comment: Messy as we drop back into the previous consolidation pattern, giving up half of the previous rally. Bullish momentum has collapsed as has the overbought situation. This suggests we shall hold below last week’s high at 1.4448 this week and maybe all month while we try and establish a new interim base.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4145; stop below 1.4100. Short term target 1.4300, then 1.4400.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Retreating from a recent high close to this year’s peak, but nothing dramatic or conclusive. We shall continue to watch for signs of topping and reversing, here and in all Yen crosses which must confirm each other.
Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 136.80, adding to 137.70; stop above 139.35. Short term targets 136.00 maybe 133.00.
GBP
Comment: So disappointing as we pull back into the ‘triangle’ that has dominated since May. Moving averages are still bullish and we are trading above a large Ichimoku ‘cloud’ so we shall continue to watch for signs of basing.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6475; stop well below 1.6400. First target 1.6600, then 1.7000.
JPY
Comment: Retreating from Fibonacci retracement resistance, dropping into a strangely-shaped Ichimoku ‘cloud’. The US dollar is still a little overbought here and downside pressure may come from the Yen crosses. Note that open interest is at its lowest since 2002.
Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 96.80, adding to 97.25; stop above 97.85. Short term target 96.00, then 95.00.
