EUR
Comment: The strongest weekly close since September above the top of the large weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and the 50% Fibonacci level. Still hovering under this year’s high at 1.4339 but increasing bullish momentum should ensure a break above here this week. Implied volatility should pick up next.
Strategy: Buy at 1.4245, adding to 1.4185; stop well below 1.4140. Short term target 1.4275/1.4290, then this year’s high at 1.4339, a lot more later on.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Difficult as prices trade towards some of the highest levels this year but in the middle of a larger weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’. We shall watch for signs of topping today and all week.
Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 135.00; stop above 135.85. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 134.00 for 132.00.
GBP
Comment: Pity Cable didn’t manage a strong enough weekly close and is still hovering at the upper edge of the ‘triangle’ formation. Nevertheless bullish momentum has increased a little and the pound is not overbought. Maybe it will be dragged higher by other currencies that have seen weekly closes beyond key chart levels.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6490; stop below 1.6270. First target 1.6550 then 1.6600/1.6650 and then this year’s high at 1.6745. More later this year.
JPY
Comment: Still hovering nervously around a sort of ‘neckline’ of a potential ‘head-and-shoulders’ top and under a thick weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Watch for signs of stalling and topping again today because the latest bounce has retraced half of the drop between June and early July.
Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 94.85; stop above 95.35. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 94.40 for 93.25.
