EUR

Comment: Consolidating in a small rather nasty little ‘triangle’ below the top of a large Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and Fibonacci resistance. Moving averages are bullish yet the Euro has not managed to gather any upside momentum for weeks. As the lower edge of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ drops towards 1.3200 over the next six weeks, allow for a shake-up of the complacent and a proper clear out. Later this year the Euro should strengthen so it might be a good idea to buy volatility for this period.

Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.3915; stop well below 1.3800. Short term target 1.4050.


EUR/JPY

Comment: Precariously poised above 126.00 which is the middle of this year’s broad trading band but not quite managing a weekly close lower than anything seen since March. Momentum is however decidedly bearish and should increase the lower we go though the Euro is already oversold. Implied volatility should move a lot higher.

Strategy: Sell at 128.10 but only if prepared to add to 129.10; stop well above 130.00. Short term target 127.10, but be ready to add to shorts on a sustained break below 127.00for a sharp drop to the 126.00/125.00 area.


GBP

Comment: Price action since late May looks increasingly like ‘triangle’ consolidation but because the lower edge of the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ drops through to November bullish moving averages may have trouble pushing the pound higher. Be careful and expect volatility to increase significantly from the levels seen in the last three months.

Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.6100; stop below 1.6000. First target 1.6300, then 1.6600.


JPY

Comment: A weekly close clearly below 94.00 completes a small ‘head-and-shoulders’ top, the lowest weekly close since mid-February, should force many to sit up and take note. They will no doubt be forced into action by the end of this month so expect a sudden slide and volatile price swings. Momentum is decidedly bearish and the US dollar is slightly oversold. One-month at-the-money implied volatility looks set to increase significantly over the next three to six weeks.

Strategy: Sell at 92.35, adding to 93.20; stop above 93.60. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 91.70 for 90.00, then lower still.