EUR

Comment: Holding up better than we had thought as stock markets slide, refugees from these leap into Treasuries and the Yen. The Euro is poised at the top of a large Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and while the risk is that we will drift into it, it is large and should provide support over the coming month and more.

Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.3920; stop well below 1.3800. Short term target 1.4050.


EUR/JPY

Comment: Slumping through trendline support and a thin Ichimoku ‘cloud’, bouncing ahead of 126.00 which is the middle of this year’s broad trading band. We expect prices to hold above yesterday’s low at 127.00 today and probably tomorrow, maybe even above 129.00 because the Lagging Span tries to hold above trendline support. Rallies are seen as selling opportunities for another move lower later this month.

Strategy: Sell at 129.70 but only if prepared to add to 131.00; stop above 132.25. Short term target 128.00, then the 127.00/126.00 area.


GBP

Comment: Holding Fibonacci support ahead of an increasingly large, upward-sloping Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Continue to watch and see how Cable reacts here and ahead of June’s low at 1.5800, where we hope support will hold and it is just a question of whether price action is neat or full of ‘spikes’ and ‘extensions’.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6120, adding to 1.6000; stop below 1.5800. First target 1.6200, then 1.6400.


JPY

Comment: Typical of the Yen in that when it decides to gain against other currencies it does so with a vengeance, taking no prisoners. It hovered above 94.00 most of the day in London as large option expiries were protected, but once these died stop loss selling caused the biggest daily drop since mid-March. This morning it should try and regain some semblance of stability, probably hovering around 93.00. A weekly close below 94.00 would add considerable bearish momentum for concerted downside probes of key support throughout this month.

Strategy: Attempt shorts at 93.05/93.50; stop well above 94.55. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 92.25 for 91.80 short term, then lower still.