EUR
Comment: Disappointing as we drop back to where we started yesterday and moving averages have crossed to negative. At best we see this as markets thrashing around, preparing to break out of recent ranges.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.3955; stop below 1.3800. Short term target 1.4100, then 1.4200.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Thrashing around between trendline support and resistance at the moving averages. Allow for more of the same today.
Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 134.30; stop above 135.50. Short term target 133.00, then 132.00.
GBP
Comment: Balking at the top of the ‘triangle/pennant’ as it goes it pretty much alone and hampered by the Swiss National Bank’s intervention. It does however add weight to our view that Cable is trying to break higher out of recent consolidation. A weekly close above 1.6600 is needed to take bullish momentum back up to the very strong levels of early June.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6435, adding to 1.6300; stop below 1.6080. First target 1.6500, then 1.6600.
JPY
Comment: Bouncing to the 26-day moving average and holding below the Ichimoku ‘cloud’. We expect prices to stall here this morning and then drift lower late today and Friday. Note that open interest is lower than it has been in at least five years.
Strategy: Sell at 96.20; stop above 97.35. First target 95.50, then 95.00.
