EUR
Comment: Dropping by a little more than we had allowed for but still well within normal retracement parameters. The Euro is no longer overbought and though lower than earlier, momentum is still decidedly bullish. With a little luck this week prices will tray and base between trendline support (which is very steep and therefore likely to fail) and the lower edge of the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ at 1.3850.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.3945; stop below 1.3850. Short term target 1.4020, then 1.4245.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Bursting very unsteadily to a new high for this year at 139.26, above April’s at 137.42. Allow for more difficult messy work either side of 137.50, probably in a range roughly between 135.50 and 139.50.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 137.25; stop well above 138.20 Short term target 135.50, maybe 134.00.
GBP
Comment: Retracing more than we had allowed for but unfortunately this is to be expected when confronted with some of the biggest monthly moves ever. Nevertheless it is still well within normal retracement parameters and above trendline support. Two-way price action should keep the bid tone to implied volatility. The pound is no longer overbought and with a little luck should try and base around the fairly pivotal level at 1.5800.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.5865; stop below 1.5740. First target 1.6000, then 1.6200.
JPY
Comment: Rallying strongly from the 26-week moving average back into the Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Not what we had expected and keeping prices within the range of the last15 weeks. This has forced us to adjust our view, postponing significantly a sustained break below increasingly important support around 94.00.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 98.55; stop above 99.25. First target 97.65 then 96.00.
