EUR
Comment: Retreating from the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and the 26-week moving average. Expect the Euro to re-group this week for another re-test of increasingly important resistance around 1.3700.
Strategy: Buy at 1.3465; stop below 1.3400. Short term target 1.3700.
EUR/JPY
Comment: ‘Bearish engulfing’ weekly candle against Fibonacci resistance, ahead of a very large Ichimoku ‘cloud’. This adds weight to our view that over the next few weeks there is a good chance that Yen crosses will drop, keeping them within the very broad band that has held since October. This pair should retreat to the 126.00 area, maybe more.
Strategy: Sell at 127.70 but only if prepared to add to 130.00; stop above 132.00. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 126.85 for 126.40/1`26.40, maybe 124.50.
GBP
Comment: One of the highest weekly closes of the last six months but still not quite high enough to confirm an upside break. When one-month at-the-money implied volatility starts holding above 14.00%, then maybe prices will break to new recent highs.
Strategy: Buy at 1.5150; stop well below 1.5000. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5375 for 1.5500 short term and then 1.5725/1.5800.
JPY
Comment: Lowest weekly close since late February and now flirting around the 50% Fibonacci support area. It will probably try, not very successfully, to hold between here and the March low at 93.55 this week. Then down again.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 95.00, adding to 96.00; stop above 98.00. Add to shorts below 94.00 for 93.55.
