EUR
Comment: Still toying with this year’s highs (1.3801 on the 8th January and 1.3739 on the 19th March). It is just a matter of time before we rally through here, with the Swiss franc snapping close on the Euro’s heels, behind the Yen.
Strategy: Buy at 1.3690, adding to 1.3600; stop below 1.3400. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3750 for 1.3800 and then 1.4000.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Hovering above the top of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ again today but later this week we feel it will start dropping into it. Chikou Span is winding its way through a little thicket of candles which may hamper progress. Eventually we favour a drop to the 126.00 area, maybe more.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 132.00, adding to 133.00; stop above 134.80. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 131.00 for 130.00 short term and then 128.35.
GBP
Comment: Cable is not overbought and momentum is steadily bullish. Consolidating just under some of the highest prices so far this year (high 1.5375 8th January). We expect this to be tested some time this week noting that the slower and steadier the rallies the further they will go and the longer they will continue.
Strategy: Buy at 1.5290, adding to 1.5100; stop well below 1.5000. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5375 for 1.5500 short term and then 1.5725/1.5800.
JPY
Comment: Dropping quickly into a large Ichimoku ‘cloud’, below the moving averages which are signalling a short position, and testing trendline support. Expect prices to try and hold above 95.63 (April’s low) this morning and maybe all day as the US dollar is close to oversold. Over the coming fortnight, maybe for a month, we now expect the Yen to outperform other currencies so that dollar/yen and yen crosses move lower.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 96.45 but only if prepared to add to 98.00; stop above 98.65. Short term target 95.65 and then 94.50.
