EUR
Comment: Getting more interesting with a weekly close above 1.3600, above long term trendline resistance, and on of the highest closes this year. Similar formations in many other majors suggest generalised US dollar weakness takes hold this month – to the surprise of many who see this as ‘risk appetite’.
Strategy: Buy at 1.3630, adding to 1.3550; stop well below 1.3400. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3670 for March’s high at 1.3739 and then 1.4000.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Almost the strongest weekly close this year yet the Technical picture remains mixed. We still favour topping activity at current levels as happened in March and April.
Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 134.25; stop above 135.00. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 133.75 for 132.00 short term and then 131.35.
GBP
Comment: Closing well above the psychological 1.5000 and one of the strongest since November. Expect a little hesitation under 1.5280 this morning followed by another squeeze towards December’s high at 1.5725.
Strategy: Buy at 1.5200, adding to 1.5000; stop below 1.4900. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5300 for 1.5375 short term and then 1.5725/1.5800.
JPY
Comment: Precariously poised on top of a large Ichimoku ‘cloud’ as the 26-day moving average moves sideways. Losing ground against other currencies so that some Yen crosses are now at their highest for this year. For today expect some more slow work roughly between 98.00 and 99.25, then down towards trendline support at 96.30 today.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 98.40, adding to 99.25; stop above 99.85. Short term target 97.75, maybe 97.15.
