EUR
Comment: Holding above the top of the ‘cloud’ and the nine-day moving average, though lagging Pacific rim currencies. Similar patterns can be seen in a series of major currencies suggesting generalised US dollar weakness this month, probably a lot longer than that.
Strategy: Buy at 1.3285; stop below 1.3090. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3450 for 1.3575/1.3600 and more further out.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Holding above the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ though increasingly stuck under the 134.00 area, so still mixed signals. We feel the latest move might stall around the 133.00 area for a small retreat towards 126.00.
Strategy: Attempt tiny shorts at 130.50, adding to 132.00; stop above 134.50. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 129.75 for 128.85 and maybe 126.65.
GBP
Comment: The strongest daily close since early January and some other currencies are doing something similar. Expect another squeeze higher this week and maybe all month, increasing as more currencies start seriously pulling in the same direction.
Strategy: Buy at 1.5075/1.5000; stop below 1.4700. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5175 for 1.5375 short term and then 1.5725/1.5800.
JPY
Comment: Tricky as prices are supported by a large Ichimoku ‘cloud’ yet a potential (if crooked) ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern is forming. Expect more hesitation between 96.00 and 99.00 for the rest of this week.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 98.25, adding to 98.90; stop above 99.85. Short term target 97.65, maybe 97.15.
