EUR
Comment: Slow work, but getting there. Bouncing from the bottom of a large ‘flag’ formation, through the thinnest point of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and the 9-day moving average. A weekly close above 1.3185 would form a small ‘bullish engulfing’ candle on the weekly chart and might add to current bullish momentum.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.3175; stop below 1.2950. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3200 for 1.3400 short term and 1.3600 further out.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Creeping very fractionally higher and hopefully the thickening Ichimoku ‘cloud’ will keep on nudging it up. Momentum is nowhere near bullish and the long term outlook is for broadly sideways work this year.
Strategy: Buy at 127.80; stop well below 126.00. Add to long above 129.00 for 130.00 short term and maybe 134.00 further out.
GBP
Comment: Bouncing from the top of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’, closing above the 26-day moving average, in what can be seen as a ‘bullish engulfing’ candle. Bullish momentum might increase if we hold above 1.4600 today though really a weekly close above 1.5000 is essential for a decent rally to really get going.
Strategy: Buy at 1.4665; stop below 1.4380. Short term target 1.4850, eventually 1.5000.
JPY
Comment: Dropping by more than expected, breaking below the 50% retracement level and the 9 and 26-day moving averages. This has forced us to adjust our view and now see April’s high at 101.45 as an interim top so that prices are likely to hold below here for another couple of months or so. The next step should be a bout of generalised US dollar weakness so that dollar/Yen drops towards 93.50.
Strategy: Attempt shorts on a bounce to 98.00; stop above 99.00. Add to shorts on a break below 96.50 for 95.75 short term, probably 93.50 further out.
