EUR
Comment: Hugging the top of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’, hovering around the 9-day moving average. The Euro is not overbought and one-month at-the-money implied volatility is lower than it has been since October. Time to start picking up again? A sustained break above last month’s high at 1.3739 should see another round of short-covering send it back up towards 1.4400.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.3355, adding to 1.3400; stop below 1.3250. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3800 for 1.4000 and then more.
EUR/JPY
Comment: A decent ‘spike high’ yesterday here, and in a series of other Yen crosses, hints that prices might consolidate under here for the rest of this week. Dips are seen as buying opportunities for a break to new recent highs later this month.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 134.25; stop below 130.00. Add to longs on a sustained break above 137.50 and again above 138.65 for 140.00, probably 142.00.
GBP
Comment: Holding above immediate retracement support and the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ though below yesterday’s high at 1.4960. A sustained break above 1.5000 should set off another round of serious short-covering.
Strategy: Buy at 1.4675; stop below 1.4400. Short term target 1.4960, then 1.5375.
JPY
Comment: Consolidating neatly under yesterday’s high at 101.45 and we continue to favour another brief squeeze higher still, to 102.00 and possibly even as high as 106.50 some time this month.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 100.50, adding to 99.50; stop below 99.00. Cover ahead of 102.20.
