EUR
Comment: Not going to plan. Hugging the bottom of the downward-sloping ‘wedge’ and the Euro is oversold. We will still wait and watch for cautious attempts at forming an interim base this week, possibly with a rather scary ‘spike low’.
Strategy: Do nothing if possible. For those who have to attempt tiny longs at 1.2590; stop below 1.2500. First target 1.2650, then 1.2700/1.2750.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Little to add but 9-day average has crossed over 26-day one. Still under a very thin Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and CHF/JPY is at the top of the recent range. Expect more of the same today and maybe all week with an attempt to rally late this month.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 117.75 but only if prepared to add to 116.00; stop below 114.00. First target 119.00, then 120.00.
GBP
Comment: Stopped dead in its tracks, trying to form an interim low, hopefully around retracement support but maybe we shall have to live through a nasty ‘spike low’. Note the very thin Ichimoku ‘cloud’.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4260; stop well below 1.4050. Short term target 1.4400, then 1.4600.
JPY
Comment: Rallying to the top of the large Ichimoku ‘cloud’, as expected, and likely to hover around here today and tomorrow capped by January’s high at 94.65. The US dollar is overbought and surprisingly one-month at-the-money implied volatility has dropped to 15.20%, its lowest since September last year.
Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 93.50, adding to 93.95; stop above 94.75. Cover shorts ahead of 92.00.
