EUR
Comment: A tiny gap lower today as the Euro holds inside a downward-sloping ‘wedge’ formation, disappointing as we fall below 1.2800. Watch for more cautious attempts at forming an interim base this week, possibly with a rather scary ‘spike low’.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.2730; stop well below 1.2700. First target 1.2815, then 1.2945.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Lack of momentum means prices are creeping randomly sideways across the page. Expect more of the same today and maybe all week.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 116.75; stop below 114.00. First target 118.00, then 120.00.
GBP
Comment: Dropping back from the moving averages and should try again this week to form an interim low, hopefully around retracement support but maybe we shall have to live through a nasty ‘spike low’.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.4165; stop well below 1.4050. Short term target 1.4400, then 1.4600.
JPY
Comment: Re-testing trendline resistance and the chance of breaking above here increases the longer we hold above the moving averages. In this case we favour a short squeeze to the top of the large Ichimoku ‘cloud’, something that should surprise many as consensus opinion is still for Yen strength this year against all currencies as unwinding of the ‘carry trade’ continues. We disagree with this consensus view.
Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 91.65/91.25; stop/reverse below 89.70 for 88.50. Cover longs ahead of 92.25 but be ready to re-buy above 92.55 for 93.85/94.00.
