EUR
Comment: Momentum is no longer bearish as we continue trying to base against retracement support at 1.2800, in a potential downward-sloping ‘wedge’ formation. Only on a sustained break above 1.3300 will momentum turn bullish and life get a bit more interesting.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.2900; stop well below 1.2700. First target 1.3000, then 1.3100.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Stalling this morning at the upper end of the range since mid-January, under the 26-day moving average at 120.32 and likely to consolidate below here again today. Late this week, or later this month we favour a break above here.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 117.65, adding to 116.00; stop below 113.00. First target 120.00, then 123.00.
GBP
Comment: Testing the top of the downward-sloping ‘wedge’ formation and the bottom of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ where a thinning ‘cloud’ in the last week of this month suggests a break higher. In order to get above these resistance levels it will need help from other currencies where the Australian dollar is probably the one most likely to break higher sooner rather than later. Expect hesitation today and maybe all week.
Strategy: Buy at 1.4715 but only if prepared to add to 1.4440; stop below 1.4000. Short term target 1.4875, eventually 1.5000. Serious re-thinking will only take place above 1.5500.
JPY
Comment: Closing above trendline resistance in a fairly thick Ichimoku ‘cloud’ but not above 92.00, the first week of this year and the highest weekly close so far. Therefore we shall allow for consolidation under 92.50 today, maybe even all week, prior to another push higher later this month.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts on a bounce to 91.50, adding to 92.00; stop/reverse above 92.55 for 94.00. Cover shorts ahead of 90.00 and watch for signs of basing between here and 89.00.
