EUR
Comment: Too dull and stupid for words, hovering around retracement support at 1.2800, in a potential downward-sloping ‘wedge’ formation. Only on a sustained break above 1.3300 will momentum turn bullish and life get a bit more interesting.
Strategy: Possibly attempt longs at 1.2765; stop well below 1.2700. First target 1.3000, then 1.3100.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Trying to base at the bottom of the range established since October, but struggling at the 120.00 level. If not today, then probably next week we feel we should trade higher, here and in a whole host of other major currencies, so that we spend many months in a broad band roughly between 113.00 and 130.00.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 116.00, adding to 115.00; stop below 113.00. First target 119.00, then 120.00.
GBP
Comment: Slow work but getting there, Cable holding above the 26-day average and moving towards the top of the downward-sloping ‘wedge’ formation, following the pattern in GBP/JPY. A thinning Ichimoku ‘cloud’ in the last week of this month suggests a break higher.
Strategy: Buy at 1.4635, adding to 1.4440; stop below 1.4000. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.4705 for 1.4800 short term, eventually 1.5000.
JPY
Comment: Bursting through the 26-day moving average, a flurry of activity pushing prices above trendline resistance and into a thick Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Expect consolidation at these higher levels this morning, a weekly close above 92.00 should turn momentum bullish for a squeeze up to 94.00. Note that rather than forecasting the start of a long bull run, we see this as one of many complex price swings that we are preparing for over the comin year.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 90.85 but only if prepared to add to 90.00; stop well below 89.00. Add to longs on a sustained break above 91.50 for 92.00 short term and 94.00 medium term.
