EUR
Comment: Consolidating neatly under December’s high, similar to price action in September and under a very large weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Expect more of the same today and maybe up to another three weeks, then we favour another upside push.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.3930; stop below 1.3750. First target 1.4200, then 1.4350.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Little to add as Yen crosses continue to consolidate slowly above October’s lows in fairly narrow trading bands. This one is working in the middle of a very large Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and below first retracement resistance. While this may cap again today we cannot rule out a cautious upside probe this week or next.
Strategy: Possibly attempt shorts at 127.70; stop above 129.50. First target 126.00/125.50.
GBP
Comment: Sterling, last year’s worst performing currency, is a sorry mess. Cable is still consolidating at current levels, trying to base in a downward-sloping ‘wedge’ formation. Expect more of the same this week.
Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.4540; stop below 1.4300. First target 1.4800, then 1.5000.
JPY
Comment: Breaking above immediate trendline resistance as we consolidate neatly above a multi-year low at 87.12, one of the lowest ever prices and only seen between April and August 1995. We have also broken above the 9 and 26-day moving averages but a very large Ichimoku ‘cloud’ should limit any further bounces. This year’s bounce has been capped by first retracement resistance at 92.40 but we cannot rule out another cautious squeeze higher towards 95.00 which is seen as a selling opportunity for further drops later this quarter.
Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 91.90; stop above 93.50. First target 91.00/90.50.
