EUR
Comment: Trying to stabilise at the 50% retracement level with a small ‘spike low’ below trendline support. Not very inspiring though and dropped by more than expected yesterday. Expect the Euro to try and form an interim base today and for the rest of the week.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.4125; stop below 1.4000. Short term target 1.4350, then 1.4450.
EUR/JPY
Comment: The lowest monthly close since October 2006 completes a massive ‘triple top’. Expect more dithering today and maybe for another two weeks around pivotal support very roughly between 148.00 and 152.00. The next very long term move is a lot lower, something which may kick off with tremendous speed and then slow next year.
Strategy: Sell at 149.50, adding to 150.50; stop well above 152.00. Short term target 149.00, then 147.50/147.00.
GBP
Comment: Doing better than some other currencies and forming a decent ‘spike low’ against 50% retracement support on the monthly chart.
Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.7835; stop below 1.7700. Short term target 1.8000, maybe 1.8200.
JPY
Comment: September’s ‘bearish engulfing’ candle on the monthly chart suggests the next few months will see the Yen gain against the US dollar, taking prices back down towards 100.00. Bearish pressure should increase if we hold below the 108.00 area. For today expect topping activity at 107.00 and another drift to 104.00 later this week.
Strategy: Sell at 106.00; stop above 107.10. Short term target 105.25, then 103.50.
