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EUR: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.4260

Fri, Dec 19 2008, 07:35 GMT
by Nicole Elliott

Mizuho Corporate Bank


EUR

Comment: After the biggest weekly move ever, the Euro has formed a massive ‘shooting star’ against 61% Fibonacci resistance. Therefore we reiterate our vie that over the coming three weeks we expect a series of smaller moves roughly between 1.4000 and 1.4800.

Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.4260; stop well below 1.4000. First target 1.4445, then 1.4600/1.4650.


EUR/JPY

Comment: A ‘shooting star’ yesterday against a large Ichimoku ‘cloud’, retracement resistance and October’s high suggests we shall hold below here today and probably next week too.

Strategy: Sell at 127.15; stop above 131.25. First target 124.75, then 123.45, maybe 119.00.


GBP

Comment: Sterling smashed to pieces and some look to Cable for crumbs of comfort as the US dollar is hit even harder. Cable should consolidate at current levels today and maybe for all week with a daily close clearly above 1.5600, and more likely above retracement resistance at 1.5800, before another small round of short covering takes place.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.5115; stop below 1.4600. First target 1.5500, then 1.5700.


JPY

Comment: Consolidating under the right-angled ‘triangle’ above a multi-year low at 87.12, one of the lowest ever prices and only seen between April and August 1995. The US dollar is oversold and momentum has eased considerably. Open interest has picked up very considerably this month though well below last year’s record.

Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 89.00; stop well above 90.00. First target 88.00, then 87.15.

Published on  Fri, Dec 19 2008, 07:40 GMT


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Mizuho Corporate Bank  | 1-3-3, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8210
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk | Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk

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