Search
Daily Technical Analysis
0
0
EUR: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.4770; stop below 1.4700
Fri, Aug 15 2008, 06:59 GMT
by Nicole Elliott
EUR
Comment: Inching to a new recent low following Friday’s massive sell-off. We see this week’s price action as a ‘downward-sloping wedge’ formation which is unstable. One-month at-the-money implied volatility could squeeze a lot higher than 10.50% if prices were to suddenly reverse some of the declines of the last two weeks. Wait and watch for a dramatic reversal because the Euro is more oversold than it has ever been.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.4770; stop below 1.4700. Short term target 1.4900 and then 1.5000.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Consolidating neatly under the bottom of the ‘broadening top’ formation and below the bottom of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’. The longer we do this the more bearish momentum. A weekly close below 163.00 should also add bearish pressure. We then expect a drop to 158.00 within the fortnight and further out a slide to 152.00. Below here and the long term picture gets seriously interesting.
Strategy: Sell at 162.90, adding to 163.70; stop well above 164.25. Short term target 162.00/161.60, then 160.60.
GBP
Comment: A terrible month for the pound so far, but not nearly as bad as September 1992’s 33 cent loss or October 1992’s 23 cent loss. Cold comfort as the Bank of England, the Treasury and the FSA remain tight-lipped. The only one making any sense of thins is the Liberal’s Vince Cable: ‘The doomsday scenario would be that we finish up like Japan did, with ten years of stagnation’. It has now retraced 61% of the rally from November 2005’s 1.7050 to last year’s high at 2.1162. No signs of basing yet so wait for something a lot clearer despite eleven consecutive down days.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.8645; stop well below 1.8600. Short term target 1.8800, then 1.9000.
JPY
Comment: Rather surprising to see the Yen back up at the 110.00/110.50 pivotal chart area. Once again we shall be looking for it to stall here, always allowing for a brief ‘extension/spike high’. We expect at-the-money implied volatility to increase significantly over the coming month.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 110.30; stop well above 110.55. Short term target 109.55 then 108.55.
Download Full EUR Technical Analysis
Published on Fri, Aug 15 2008, 07:03 GMT
Archive
- EUR: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.2675; stop below 1.2500
Published On Mon, Dec 1 2008, 07:35 GMT - EUR: Strategy remains unchanged: attempt longs at 1.2925, adding to 1.2800; stop below 1.2650
Published On Fri, Nov 28 2008, 07:18 GMT - EUR: Attempt longs at 1.2925, adding to 1.2800; stop below 1.2650
Published On Thu, Nov 27 2008, 07:28 GMT - EUR: Attempt longs at 1.2975, adding to 1.2800; stop below 1.2650
Published On Wed, Nov 26 2008, 07:40 GMT - EUR: Attempt longs on a drop to 1.2700, adding to 1.2600; stop below 1.2400
Published On Tue, Nov 25 2008, 07:50 GMT
Mizuho Corporate Bank
| 1-3-3, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8210
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk | Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
The information contained in this page is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This page has been prepared solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy.Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!
FXstreet.com will give you a 3 months membership as soon as minimum rebates have been generated (€150 for private trader/ €300 for corporate trader)
[Read Premium full description]
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
©2008 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.