Daily Technical Analysis

EUR: Attempt small longs at 1.5865, adding to 1.5810

Fri, Jul 18 2008, 06:47 GMT
by Nicole Elliott

Mizuho Corporate Bank


EUR

Comment: Trying to base between 1.5800 and 1.5750. Expect more work between 1.5750 and 1.5950 today. Only a weekly close above 1.6000 will see momentum turn decidedly bullish.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.5865, adding to 1.5810; stop well below 1.5750. Cover longs between 1.5950 and 1.6020, re-buying on a sustained break above 1.6050 for 1.6250.

EUR/JPY

Comment: Rallying by more than expected but still within a potential ‘broadening top’. Look for this pair to retreat from 169.00 today. Note that all this swinging around either side of 167.50 since mid-June hints at a market looking for direction.

Strategy: Sell at 168.50; stop above 169.75. Short term target 167.50, then 166.00.

GBP

Comment: Holding steady, probably a bit better than many had imagines as sterling is so out of favour at the moment. A weekly close above 2.0000, which might be possible this week and hopefully by the end of the month, should propel Cable a lot higher spurred by short-covering because the pound is so completely out of favour this year. For this morning expect more basing activity around 1.9950, allowing for the possibility of a massive short squeeze late today or early Monday.

Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.9985/1.9950; stop well below 1.9800. Short term target 2.0100, then 2.0400 and long term much more.

JPY

Comment: The bouncing from the bottom of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ was far stronger than we had expected but has stalled against the top of the consolidation pattern. It does mean that the US dollar is nowhere near oversold territory any more, but then momentum is now neutral. It all looks terribly overdone and we favour a drop back down to 105.50.

Strategy: Sell at 106.00, adding to 106.45; stop above 107.00. Short term target 105.50/105.00.

Published on  Fri, Jul 18 2008, 06:55 GMT

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Mizuho Corporate Bank  | 1-3-3, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8210
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk | Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk

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