Daily Technical Analysis

EUR: Attempt small longs on a dip to 1.5915 but only if prepared to add to 1.5850

Tue, Jul 15 2008, 06:44 GMT
by Nicole Elliott

Mizuho Corporate Bank


EUR

Comment: Holding at some of the highest levels ever and we continue to expect generalised US dollar weakness over the next six months, a move which may well gather very considerable momentum. This week allow for several cautious upside tests at the record high of 1.6020. A weekly close above here should set off another big round of short covering with a massive increase in implied volatility.

Strategy: Attempt small longs on a dip to 1.5915 but only if prepared to add to 1.5850; stop well below 1.5750. Cover longs between 1.5970 and 1.6020, re-buying on a sustained break above 1.6035 for 1.6250.

EUR/JPY

Comment: Very dreary as we consolidate under the new all-time high at 169.69. The Euro is very overbought so watch for signs of topping today and all week.

Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 168.65; stop above 169.75. Short term target 168.25, then 167.25.

GBP

Comment: Inching towards the psychological 2.0000 level. Only a weekly close above 2.0000, which is possible this week and hopefully by the end of the month, would add some decent bullish momentum. A series of stop-losses are likely to be triggered above 2.0050 so that Sterling might outperform other major currencies. Upside pressure increases if we hold above 1.9800 this morning.

Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.9970, adding to 1.9880; stop well below 1.9800. Short term target 2.0000/2.0050, then 2.0400.

JPY

Comment: Consolidating in a small ‘triangle’ and drifting very slowly lower. Later on this week we are due a test of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and downside momentum might build on a sustained break below 105.00.

Strategy: Attempt shorts at 105.90, adding to 106.45; stop well above 107.00. Short term target 105.25/105.00, eventually 103.00.

Published on  Tue, Jul 15 2008, 06:52 GMT

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Mizuho Corporate Bank  | 1-3-3, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8210
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk | Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk

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