Daily Technical Analysis

EUR: Attempt longs at 1.5670, adding to 1.5575

Thu, Jun 26 2008, 06:20 GMT
by Nicole Elliott

Mizuho Corporate Bank


EUR

Comment: Pushing up above the top of a thin Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and would have done even better if other currencies had pulled their weight. If not today then probably before month-end we favour a re-test of the 1.5800 area.

Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.5670, adding to 1.5575; stop below 1.5460. Short term target 1.5700 then 1.5800/1.5845.


EUR/JPY

Comment: Powering to a new record high at 169.33 today. The Euro is massively overbought, more so than it has been since May 2003. This is very scary stuff.

Strategy: Do as little as possible. For those who have to attempt tiny shorts at 169.25; stop above 170.00. Short term target 167.25, then 165.65.


GBP

Comment: Consolidating in the middle of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and trendline resistance at 1.9770 today. More important resistance lies at 1.9800 so no need to get too excited until we break above here. Buy stops are probably lined up all the way between 1.9800 and 2.0000.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.9735, adding to 1.9660; stop below 1.9570. Short term target 1.9770/1.9800, then 2.0000.


JPY

Comment: Too grim to be true as we creep across the page. Not surprisingly one-month at-the-money implied volatility has dropped and is likely to continue to do so while we trade randomly in tiny ranges. More of the same today.

Strategy: Strategy remains unchanged: attempt small shorts at 107.85/108.25; stop above 108.65. Short term target 107.45, then 106.50.

Published on  Thu, Jun 26 2008, 06:26 GMT

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Mizuho Corporate Bank  | 1-3-3, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8210
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk | Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk

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