EUR
Comment: A small ‘spike low’ yesterday suggests the Euro will hold above 1.4700 again today. Intra-day moves are likely to be sharp and sudden therefore at-the-money implied volatility is likely to remain high.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4800; stop below 1.4700. Target 1.4950/1.5000.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Despite the strong bounce of the last two days there is little to add as we consolidate inside the Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Momentum is now neutral and implied volatility remains high.
Strategy: Sell at 163.00/163.50; stop above 164.50. Short term target 160.50, eventually 158.50.
GBP
Comment: Nothing to add as we consolidate in the middle of this month’s range. Medium term while above 2.0000 the next move is to new recent highs.
Strategy: Attempt small longs on a dip to 2.0655, adding to 2.0600; stop below 2.0500. Short term target 2.0800/2.0840.
JPY
Comment: Bouncing quite a bit more than we had allowed for suggesting we shall hold above 107.00 for another week or two. Rallies are still seen as selling opportunities for a move lower later this year. Open interest continues to drop and is now at its lowest in over a year.
Strategy: Sell at 110.10; stop above 110.65. Add to shorts below 109.00 for 107.50.
