EUR
Comment: The strongest ever weekly close – for a third consecutive week. The record high is 1.4530 and the Euro is not nearly as overbought as some might think. When supermodels no longer accept payment in US dollars you know the currency is in trouble. Dips towards 1.4200 are seen as medium term buying opportunities.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.4480 but be prepared to add to 1.4380; stop below 1.4300. Target 1.4530/1.4550.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Still very inconclusive as we hover nervously either side of 165.00. We continue to favour signs of topping but warn that we may have to change our view at a moment’s notice.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 166.10; stop above 167.35. Cover ahead of 165.00 but re-sell on a sustained break below 164.85 for 164.00 then 163.00.
GBP
Comment: Leading the way along with the Canadian dollar which is at its strongest ever. Later this month/year-end we continue to allow for a squeeze up to 2.1100. Remember Thanksgiving this month marks the beginning of the holiday season so thin markets might mean overreaction and big price moves.
Strategy: Possibly attempt longs on a dip to 2.0800/2.0755; stop below 2.0635. Short term target 2.0885 and 2.1000/2.1100 medium term.
JPY
Comment: A ‘spike high’ against the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ last week suggests we have established an interim high. The US dollar is not oversold and momentum is steadily bearish. For this week we favour a series of cautious downside tests to the bottom of what we see as a large ‘broadening top’ formation.
Strategy: Sell at 114.75, adding to 115.15; stop above 115.55. Short term target 114.00/113.80 maybe 113.25.
