EUR
Comment: Small signs that we are forming an interim base against the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ with a large ‘doji’ yesterday. Expect another attempt at forming an interim base today, noting that only a daily close above 1.3638 suggests this is in place.
Strategy: Attempt small longs 1.3455; stop below 1.3400. Short term target 1.3525, then 1.3600 and eventually 1.3670.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Fractionally higher new all-time high at 164.02 although some other Yen crosses are doing better. We continue with a very cautious stance and weekly closes clearly above 164.00 are the minimum signal we need to alter our view. For today expect even more small moves between 164.00 and 163.00.
Strategy: Do as little as possible. For those who have to: attempt tiny shorts at 163.70; stop above 164.15. Short term target 163.25 then 162.65.
GBP
Comment: The Ichimoku ‘cloud’ has done a good job in helping to put in an interim low. Today we should probe the top of the ‘flag’ formation since mid-April. A weekly close above 1.9900 should turn momentum clearly bullish.
Strategy: Attempt longs on a dip to 1.9800; stop below 1.9675. Short term target 1.9900, then 2.0000.
JPY
Comment: Remarkably few signs of instability at these historically high levels. The US dollar is grotesquely overbought and bullish momentum is poor. Futures positions are being re-built and implied volatility is very close to its record low of 5.92%. While above 120.70 upside probing will predominate. Expect yet more of the same today.
Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 121.65; stop above 122.00. Target 121.50 short term then 120.70.
