EUR
Comment: Consolidating neatly just under the all-time high at 1.3670; this is not a strong chart level so it is just a matter of time before it get blown away. The Euro is less overbought than it was yesterday and momentum is steadily bullish. For today if we can hold above the 9-day average at 1.3533 upside pressure should increase marginally for another upside push.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.3565; stop below 1.3525. Short term target 1.3670/1.3700.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Many Yen crosses are consolidating below this month’s high. This should continue this week and maybe longer. We continue to urge extreme caution and we shall still allow for another corrective move lower which may be as fierce as the February/March collapse. Bullish momentum has plummeted and the Euro is no longer overbought. Downside pressure increases if we hold below 161.50 this morning.
Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 160.65, adding to 161.50; stop above 162.55. Short term target 160.25 then 159.10.
GBP
Comment: Consolidating surprisingly neatly in a ‘flag’ formation. This should allow us to get used to trading with a 2 handle yet futures positions are well below December’s record. The pound is no longer overbought and bullish momentum is strong.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.9985 but be prepared to add to 1.9900; stop well below 1.9800. Short term target 2.0100 and 2.0500 medium term.
JPY
Comment: Little to add as we hover below 119.00, in the middle of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’, between the 9 and 26-day averages. We shall allow for more work here for another day, then down through the bottom of the formation to 117.00. The RSI is neutral and momentum looks set to turn negative. Note that futures positioning is a fraction of February’s record.
Strategy: Strategy remains unchanged: sell at 118.60/119.00; stop above 119.25. Target 117.65 short term then 116.50.
