EUR
Comment: Same old story: like so many other currencies, the Euro is stuck in a relatively tight range despite sharp intra-day moves. Today’s dip below the 9-day moving average just may have taken out some very shaky longs. Expect more of the same with chart levels less likely to hold the longer we stick to current levels.
Strategy: Buy at 1.2775; stop below 1.2745. Short term target 1.2830, then 1.2900.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Still well bid despite trading at record highs. Allow for more consolidation between 150.80 and 151.50 today. Note the cross is no longer overbought and momentum remains bullish. Implied volatility hit new record lows.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 151.10/150.90; stop well below 150.50. Short term target 151.45 and 155.00 medium term.
GBP
Comment: Trying, very slowly, to base against the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and 26-day average. Expect more of the same today. Note that Cable is not overbought and that momentum is neutral.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.8875; stop below 1.8830. Short term target 1.8970, then 1.9050.
JPY
Comment: Trapped inside a fat Ichimoku ‘cloud’ with a tiny ‘spike’ above it this morning. Momentum is neutral and so is the RSI, and not surprisingly open interest has declined significantly since mid-October. For this morning expect slow topping activity against last week’s high at 118.60. Then down towards weekly trendline resistance which lies at 116.75 next week.
Strategy: Sell at 118.30; stop above 118.60. Short term target 117.25/117.00.
